Archive for the ‘Banking’ Category

The Bear Market Cometh?

October 27, 2009

Well now that we hit our magical 10k number (again) and the big market makers had a chance to take some profits, some wonder if we’re on the verge of a bear market, and others (like last time we hit 10k) think we’re on our way to 14k… Whether you are optimistic or not about the market, the next few weeks will be telling (probably a good time to take some profits if you’re in the market and wait)

We are starting to see the tails of housing not making the comeback we all were anticipating and consumer confidence eroding (now at the lowest point it’s been in 26yrs). This consumer confidence problem is a big deal, especially when combined with continued declines or stagnation in the job market. The consumer confidence is an attempt to measure what consumers think about the future outlook of their livelihoods. This means that if the general populous thinks the future is dim, they will react accordingly. In other words letting money out of their site will be a difficult thing to do.

Some argue, that keeping the money in savings is ok, considering banks have more in their coughers to lend out to big and small businesses alike. The problem with that theory (in relation to the current situation) is that consumer confidence in banks is eroding and banks are continuing to add more barriers to credit. The financial sector in general is struggling to make ends meet and the list of bank failures growing monthly. Banks need to find ways to make ends meet, the obvious source is the consumer. This is an odd problem all on it’s own though – Banks are taking more of the consumer funds to cover the taxes they borrowed in the first place – yes, we gave banks money through the government, so to pay us back, they are taking more of our money through assessing larger fees for using their services. This results in a lot of money poured down the drain on overhead (on both the government and financial organization sides), it also results in a deadweight loss as consumers choose to not partake in the new banking environment and keep their money out of the system.

So what does all this point to? Additional declines in the economy? A jobless recovery? The recession being over?

Well, I don’t think anyone can safely predict where things are going. There will always be controversy in the actions taken so far and what the correct actions should have been or are to fix the remaining problems. All I can say is that whether you’ve lost your job or 40% of your bank savings or not – Be cautious that the worst is not over and make the right decisions along the way. My favorite picture is of the 1932 timeframe of the stock market, after what looked like the worse decline ever…

 1929 Crash

There was a great recovery – see it there? Right at the end of 1929 – just before the rest of the fall halfway through 1930?

1930 Bear

Worse can happen – plan accordingly

UPDATE – A few more posts related to the topic today – Mish has a great review of David Waggoner’s technical chart of the current correction. Economicpicdata has a great graphic of current the thoughts of the public.

Life: Stock Game Update

November 14, 2007

Well the four weeks is almost up!! I can’t believe it either and with the market the way it has been the kids are shocked they could lose SO much money so quickly!!

Well today was a bit of a rebound…. or at least a pause in the bloodbath… so I figured it would be a perfect time to update everyone on our progress…

At the end of week two we all got to make some trades – WaMu stock was liquidated from the kids’ accounts at their own begging (and I ditched my Garmin Stock). Of course personally I am looking to get into the rock bottom wamu stock price to ride the elevator back up once they get their Sh*t together :)

Quentin moved the funds from his sale into a single Google stock hoping to ride more of the wave over there. Gabriel finally decided to try some tech stocks with Amazon (notice though he stuck with a retailer though), but of course he couldn’t resist another supermarket…. he went for Albertsons and got Supervalu :) Me, well I ditched my Garmin and heavily invested in $tarbucks…. I’m still not willing to make the move on my real investment account (although I did have to pick up the super low priced Yahoo)….

So what does it all mean? Well Quentin and My tech stock rollercoaster is interesting, while Gabriel’s retail supermarket highway is a solid bet (even if the return is low). Well despite all that I sure have learned a lot about market influences on kids and a lot about my own kids’ thoughts about free markets….. I am thinking I am going to play with this game a little more ;)


Life: Stock Market Games – Day 3

October 24, 2007

Well even if my own portfolio was completely in the hole today – at least Quentin’s in-game portfolio went up the most!! That’s three days, and all three of us have had our turn earning the most money!! Granted, Quentin was only up $11.16…. but that beats my measely $4 and Gabes $93 loss! Hopefully the fact that Gabe’s still over $10k will keep him encouraged to continue playing….


Perhaps getting into Seattle’s new version of the hotel industry would be more profitable?

The Adventure Continues

October 24, 2007

You all knew the time would come that I would be moving on from my post at EMC Corporation. I certainly enjoyed working with everyone at EMC and Microsoft over the years. It was great having an impact on EMC’s work with Microsoft on all things Exchange…. The opportunity to become an author for EMC’s Tech Books (look for the Exchange versions coming soon), co-author a MSPress book, speak at numerous events, develop & deliver Microsoft Certified Architect “Exchange Ranger” training, and generally influence how all of EMCs customers use the symmetrix in their implementations……not to mention being the first blogger at EMC – nice to see that they finally caught on!! I sure hope Chuck, Len, & ‘Zilla can lead them out to where they need to be in the blogosphere!! Of course I’ll be watching :)

Where am I off to, competitor? Microsoft? Well, there are lots of other things I want to accomplish in my lifetime, so now that I’ve been at EMC, played with storage and messaging – learned A LOT – it’s time to move on to some of the other things I want to experience!!

Life is short – Unless an experience is something to cherish forever – Use a double-declining depreciation method to value them…. that way you’ll have more leverage to enjoy and learn from the experiences to come…

Of course to be passionate about what your doing you have to find what your doing remotely interesting. I’m sure you’ve all picked up on the fact that Storage and Messaging are not my only interests… and there are a lot of things in the other interests category, but I’m not ready to make all my money in them… so web technologies it is then. This time I’ll have a go with another fascinating concept – Money. Always an interesting thing to work with, for, and in spite of :)

Btw, the blog won’t be removed, the content will change a little (naturally)…. but I’m still looking for free lunches, interesting technologies, and messaging/collaboration will always be a passion of mine.