Archive for the ‘Investing’ Category

The Bear Market Cometh?

October 27, 2009

Well now that we hit our magical 10k number (again) and the big market makers had a chance to take some profits, some wonder if we’re on the verge of a bear market, and others (like last time we hit 10k) think we’re on our way to 14k… Whether you are optimistic or not about the market, the next few weeks will be telling (probably a good time to take some profits if you’re in the market and wait)

We are starting to see the tails of housing not making the comeback we all were anticipating and consumer confidence eroding (now at the lowest point it’s been in 26yrs). This consumer confidence problem is a big deal, especially when combined with continued declines or stagnation in the job market. The consumer confidence is an attempt to measure what consumers think about the future outlook of their livelihoods. This means that if the general populous thinks the future is dim, they will react accordingly. In other words letting money out of their site will be a difficult thing to do.

Some argue, that keeping the money in savings is ok, considering banks have more in their coughers to lend out to big and small businesses alike. The problem with that theory (in relation to the current situation) is that consumer confidence in banks is eroding and banks are continuing to add more barriers to credit. The financial sector in general is struggling to make ends meet and the list of bank failures growing monthly. Banks need to find ways to make ends meet, the obvious source is the consumer. This is an odd problem all on it’s own though – Banks are taking more of the consumer funds to cover the taxes they borrowed in the first place – yes, we gave banks money through the government, so to pay us back, they are taking more of our money through assessing larger fees for using their services. This results in a lot of money poured down the drain on overhead (on both the government and financial organization sides), it also results in a deadweight loss as consumers choose to not partake in the new banking environment and keep their money out of the system.

So what does all this point to? Additional declines in the economy? A jobless recovery? The recession being over?

Well, I don’t think anyone can safely predict where things are going. There will always be controversy in the actions taken so far and what the correct actions should have been or are to fix the remaining problems. All I can say is that whether you’ve lost your job or 40% of your bank savings or not – Be cautious that the worst is not over and make the right decisions along the way. My favorite picture is of the 1932 timeframe of the stock market, after what looked like the worse decline ever…

 1929 Crash

There was a great recovery – see it there? Right at the end of 1929 – just before the rest of the fall halfway through 1930?

1930 Bear

Worse can happen – plan accordingly

UPDATE – A few more posts related to the topic today – Mish has a great review of David Waggoner’s technical chart of the current correction. Economicpicdata has a great graphic of current the thoughts of the public.

Life: Stock Market Games – Day 3

October 24, 2007

Well even if my own portfolio was completely in the hole today – at least Quentin’s in-game portfolio went up the most!! That’s three days, and all three of us have had our turn earning the most money!! Granted, Quentin was only up $11.16…. but that beats my measely $4 and Gabes $93 loss! Hopefully the fact that Gabe’s still over $10k will keep him encouraged to continue playing….

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Perhaps getting into Seattle’s new version of the hotel industry would be more profitable?

Life: Stock Market Games – Day 2

October 23, 2007

Not much of an update today…. except for Damn! Thanks Apple for pulling up the tech sector and pulling me into the lead :)

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Life: Elementary Stock Market Games!!!

October 22, 2007

I recently decided it was time to start teaching the kids about the stock market. Gabriel, 6 & Quentin, 9 are getting basic arithmetic, spelling, and science training in public school and will do well when they are older. The only problem is that I want to make sure they know what to do with their millions or hundreds when they start to make it….

So I Quentin, Gabriel, and I embarked on a four week adventure :)

  • $10,000.00
  • 3-5 stocks each
  • 4 weeks
  • Two trades allowed at the halfway point

The money would be split evenly amongst all the stocks chosen (so picking google would skew the number of shares for all of the companies in the portfolio). Of course the kids were all over it and had a blast trying to figure out what stocks to buy. “Hey Dad, how about Honey Bucket?”…. Yes I’m sure they were thinking it was hilarious to buy stock in human waste with the word format P**P….

So Quentin, being 9, went first with some authority….

  • Washington Mutual Bank – 12 (both Robin and myself have worked here)
  • Google – 12 (this is where the school teachers tell the kids to start on the Internet)
  • General Motors – 12 (he liked Chevy for some reason)
  • Honda Motor Company – 12 (our family cars are a Honda & an Acura)
  • Yum Brands – 12 (Pizza Hut carries some weight I guess)

Gabriel went for it too with some interesting picks…

  • Washington Mutual Bank – 53
  • Nike – 53 (he wanted both Nike & Hurley… but Nike owns Hurley)
  • Safeway – 53 (we shop here a lot)
  • Costco – 53 (and spend a lot of money here)

and… myself – I don’t personally own any of these so thought it would be fun to pick them :)

  • RIM  – 10 (almost bought at 35 and now really sore that I missed the jump to over $100)
  • Yahoo  – 10 (thinking of adding to my own portfolio)
  • Cisco  – 10 (thinking of adding to my own portfolio)
  • Google  – 10 (I can’t afford the shares so why not play with them)
  • Garmin  – 10  (everyone wants a Nav this Christmas)

Well day 1 was interesting….

Gabriel (6 years old) is in the lead with $10,199.28

I’m in a healthy second with $10,197.70

and Quentin is not far behind with $10,165.24

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After the Mariners beat the Blue Jays 7-4

July 26, 2006

I found my favorite RSS agregator is adding meebo to their list of other cool integrated features (like http://www.box.net), now if some of these other companies would start innovating with RSS, this could get really interesting!!

Of Course Engadget has a interesting post that may just be the future of blogging, or at least it’s a great science project….

I also saw this the other day but am just getting around to posting the link…. John Dvorak thinks Microsoft needs to take some advice from The Vatican and get a Pope…… hmm, I thought campus was already a sovereign nation, after all they are buying and building every remaining square foot of Redmond and Bellevue!!

And I don’t want to leave out my college friends who need to start investing like a geek, here are a few tips from our friends at slashdot….