2007 Prediction: Blogs will be replaced

Yes, that’s right, my ProBlogger prediction for the new year is:

Blogs will be Replaced in 2007

No, it’s not ubsurd, unless of course something changes the facts are already here:

• Dave Winer will stop blogging in April of 2007
• Bloggers can’t beat the awards in 2006
• Google is ditching blogging
  • For Video
  • and Wikis
• Everyone will have access to an RSS reader

Now wait a minute….what do all these things mean?

It may be difficult to read through the lines, but I have done the work for you!

If Dave (the father of blogging) Winer stops blogging, it’s sort of like the time has come for blogging (Dave’s Child) to go out on it’s own. Yes that’s right, Dave cared for this child through school, and now decided to let it live at home through college. Now he is going to push his precious little baby out on it’s own to survive without Daddy. Now there are a few good friends to help; but, I think blogging will make up it’s own mind without it’s father’s influence….and the mainstream marketers will do what they are good at and transform the young blogging mind into another daily annoyance on the net.

The good news is we entered the top before we stopped. With Time’s award, we have enough momentum to make it through to late next year. A few more events and important thing can happen before the end…..but having already won the award of the year….there is no where else to go but down.

Google is the trend setter for the new web <insert revision number here>, Microsoft copies them, Yahoo copies them, and everyone wants to build an app to sell to them. But what have they done? They are moving to wikis, office applications, and video……It’s a sign of the changes

Microsoft is going to ruin RSS reading, the Vista RSS platform will be the reader everyone uses. There are no questions about it and you can’t deny it. Once every household has RSS reading built into their OS and viewable in the multitude of applications installed on their OS….well all of these start pages, installable programs, and plugins will become obsolete. They will still live on stolen copies of the XP, Linux, and all the other operating systems that are not used that often.

There may be people with other opinons out there, but before you give them to me……..

I suggest you think about what the people you desire to connect with really want. Of course they want to get independant news delivered to them over a simple syndication…..but everyone is doing that now…..When Blogs were the new cool kid on the block, they were run by unique passionate individuals who would do anything to help you make them work, now they are run by community managers, consultants, and marketers who could care less about you or what you think. They read sites like ProBlogger to get tips on how to write a blog so it sounds more personal…..

This is all strong evidence that the essence of the blog is dead!

As an independant journalist, social leader, industry influencer, or Plain Old Geek on the net, I recomend you start playing with some of the new ways to connect to people. Create a new way to make things happen, innovate with existing technologies, or find what your social circle really wants to get from you and make that happen…..

PowerShell Scripting for Exchange 2007

Vivek has been doing a lot of work to spread the word on the Exchange Management Shell and the wiki has A LOT of stuff as well (thanks to Vivek….go enjoy the best part of Seattle summer). I have noticed more people contributing to the effort of teaching the way of the shell and individual commands. This is all good as it takes some time to get used to the new format and nomenclature. Personally I am still a bit behind, there was the big warning on the beta 1 monad staid this is going to change by RTM so I didn’t do as much as I should have to learn it, of course it hasn’t changed that much but I am still behind :(

Today I saw Ben Winzenz’s great EMS post along with all the others and was inspired by ProBlogger‘s group writing project. So I would like to invite everyone to put up a post or comment on this post with a unique Exchange 2007 powershell script (sorry no prizes unless Manning Publications wants to sponsor it with a free copy of Bruce Payette‘s book). I have created a new tag that we can file them under so they will be easily searchable, “How To: Exchange Management Shell”. When your post is up, send me a link and I will combine all the posts that come in next week and post The List first thing in September

UPDATE 08/26 9:00am: Jeffrey Snover is willing to pitch in a signed copy of Bruce’s Book as a raffle type prize for this. If anyone else has a great prize, book, powershell shirt, etc, I will be happy to raffle them off to the list as well.   Again, to officially enter (now that there is a prize), send me an email with a link to your post josh . maher at gmail dot com OR put the link to your post as a comment to this entry. Oh and don’t forget the tag…..

Now we just need to get KC to convince the interns to stick around for another week and enter them into the wiki or the Exchange 2007 script repository so they will live on a little longer.

Wait!! where is my shell post? Mine will be a bit more brief then Ben’s but hopefully useful….

I do a lot of testing with different code releases and need to build and rebuild exchange servers a lot (too much already and the product isn’t even out yet!). Amazingly every time I rebuild my environment with a new drop of code I learn something new. One of those things I have been using for some time is a neat trick for creating multiple storage groups with the foreach command……

foreach (

$i in (3,4)

) {

new-storagegroup -name SG$i -server “E2k7-CCR-B2” -logfolderpath “C:\mounts\SG$i\Log” -SystemfolderPath “C:\mounts\SG$i\log”

}

foreach (

$i in (3,4)

) {

new-mailboxdatabase -storageGroup E2k7-CCR-B2\SG$i -Name MDB -edbFilePath “C:\mounts\SG$i\db\MDB.edb”

}

The first one will create 2 storage groups named SG3 & SG4. You can use this for up to 50 storage groups of course, but it was easier to show just two. The second one just takes those storage groups and creates databases inside of them. Usually I end up configuring my storage groups differently so it was easier to separate the commands…… If there is a better way to do this, please let me know….

Here is the screen shot of these in action!!

btw…. this is on VMWare Server :p

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Top Ten Reasons you should not Blog

10. It’s time consuming – Kind of like watching TV, it wastes valuable time. You could be creating real content, spending time with your kids, your wife (no, reading her blog does not count as spending time together), or enjoy spending time off the grid daily instead of between jobs…

9. The blogosphere is already overloaded – Yes that’s right, there are lots of good bloggers out there, in fact at this point my humble technorati ranking is at the bottom of the list along with thousands of others (yes past the 1m rank). So why would you start or continue blogging at this point? The content has already been covered by the press and at least five other bloggers, would your comments on their blogs be sufficient?

8. It’s not journalism – So don’t pretend it is…..

7. There are too many rules – Yes rules…. even though it’s the journalistic outlet of the new web 2.0 era where everything converges in an underfined mashup of entreprenureal creativity…… there are rules about how to be a good blogger, how to not piss off the best bloggers, how to be a corporate blogger, how to get good technorati rankings, how to get A-list bloggers to link to you, and how to write lists……. There are even books on the subject :)

6. You don’t want to become another victim – yes many bloggers get victimized and bullied by the community. It’s probably one of the saddest things I have seen when a group of bloggers who most likely were beat up in middle school throw their A-list blogs around at people’s opinions….. because they can (see number seven – don’t piss off the A-list bloggers is one of the important rules)

5. There are no good platforms – ?? what Live Writer, typepad, radio, wordpress, blogger, community server, blah, blah, blah…… yep they all suck to some degree…. I have started and killed about ten different blogs because I didn’t like something about the platform, uploading pictures sucks in wordpress…. btw, this is a good thing, it will help encourage improvements like this and this.

4. It’s not profitable – yeah everyone thinks they are going to write a great blog, be an A-list kind of blogger, put up some adds and get some revenue. Or maybe they’ll have some people refer to their blog as their resume and get the next big job or find the next great partner…. or maybe they’ll just rent their chest and clear $10k…… um, good luck the long tail theory doesn’t work here – you have to be an A-list blogger first…. Guy isn’t even in the top 20!!

3. Your blogosphere colleagues won’t explain their jokes – um yeah – Jeff Jarvis, Mike Arrington, Robert Scoble, and Dave Winer….. quite posting inside jokes – they are crowding up my rss reader and it’s annoying :P

2. Why write your own, you could just claim the number one blog and be done
1. There are better things to do with your life……

10. Learn how to Get Things Done

9. Learn how to Draw

8. Learn to make Wine
7. Go Fly A Kite

6. Go Surf (even if it’s cold)
5. Learn to Dive (even if it’s cold)

4. Go get in a boat (even if it’s cold)

3. Use all of your vacation….. and some of your sick time

2. Use the 1m lines of text in a book…. or a new OS…..

1. Start a videoblog :)

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